Goal 1

Note: Footnotes and figure captions regarding the global tree cover loss data were revised in April 2021.

 

Key messages

• According to all indicators, we are failing to halve forest loss and associated greenhouse gas emissions by 2020 and are not on track to stop them by 2030.
• Global deforestation – our most straightforward indicator for estimating permanent loss of natural forests as a result of land use conversion – is currently around 10 million hectares per year, according to multiple data sources. Deforestation needs to decrease by nearly 1 million hectares per year to achieve the 2030 target of ending deforestation.
• Humid tropical primary forest loss needs to decrease by 340,000 hectares each year to achieve the 2030 target of zero loss. For each year we do not reduce loss by sufficient amounts, we must make even larger reductions in following years to achieve our target.
• The sustained reductions in forest loss needed to achieve the 2030 target would be unprecedented and are highly unlikely. All assessment indicators show either insufficient progress towards ending forest loss and associated greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 or that we are moving further from the targets. For example, not only are we not close to halving forest loss, but humid tropical primary forest loss is well above pre-NYDF levels, with an average of 41 percent more loss each year after the NYDF was signed than before.

 

Overview of findings

We are failing to slow and stop deforestation

Goal 1 of the New York Declaration on Forests states the collective commitments of national and sub-national governments, multi-national companies, groups representing Indigenous peoples and local communities, and non-governmental organizations to halve loss of natural forests and associated greenhouse gas emissions by 2020 and stop them by 2030. Progress on this goal is tracked with two independent data sources. These distinct data sources are further divided into six indicators of deforestation and emissions. No single indicator perfectly tracks progress on this goal, but the indicators concur that we are failing to meet our target of halving deforestation by 2020 and stopping it by 2030.

The two data sources are Global Forest Watch (GFW) and the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organizations’ Global Forest Resources Assessment 2020 (FRA 2020). GFW is a consortium of organizations that provides a free and publicly accessible website for monitoring changes in forests. Its deforestation data is entirely based on globally standardized remote sensing by satellites, updated annually.[i] The FRA (published every five years) aggregates statistics reported by national governments to track changes in forest over five- or ten-year periods. One advantage of tracking deforestation using these two data sources is that we can draw on two methodologically independent assessments of deforestation. Below is a table summarizing the indicators used to track deforestation in this annual assessment and the trends they suggest.

Criterion	Indicator	Data Source(s)	Trend
1. Rate of natural forest loss	1. Global net natural forest loss (ha/yr)	FAO FRA 2020	Decreasing, but not on target
	2. Global gross tree cover loss (ha/yr)	Global Forest Watch (Hansen et al. 2013)	Increasing, further from target
	3. Global deforestation (ha/yr)	FAO FRA 2020 and Global Forest Watch (Curtis et. al 2018)[ii]	Mixed (depending on source), but not on target
	4. Humid tropical primary forest loss (ha/yr)	Global Forest Watch (Turubanova et al. 2018)[iii]	Increasing, further from target
2. Carbon dioxide emissions from forest loss	1. Gross emissions from global deforestation (million tonnes CO2/yr)	Global Forest Watch (Zarin et al. 2016[iv], Curtis et al. 2018)	Increasing, further from target
	2. Gross emissions from humid tropical primary forest loss (million tonnes CO2/yr)	Global Forest Watch (Zarin et al. 2016, Turubanova et al. 2018)	Increasing, further from target

Note: “Not on target” means that the indicator is getting closer to the 2020 and 2030 targets but will not achieve either based on projecting that indicator forward. “Further from target” means that the indicator has moved away from the 2020 and 2030 targets since the NYDF was signed. The 2020 target to halve deforestation is relative to the baseline of average deforestation between 2001 (Indicators 1.2, 1.3, 2.1) or 2002 (Indicators 1.4 and 2.2) and 2013 for GFW indicators and between 2000 and 2010 for FRA 2020 indicators (Indicators 1.1 and 1.3). 

Stopping deforestation by 2030 will take unprecedented effort

According to GFW data, deforestation has been higher since the NYDF was signed in 2014 than before it was signed (the pre-NYDF baseline period of 2001-13). Stopping deforestation by 2030 would require prolonged decreases in annual deforestation, yet there has never been a period in which deforestation has decreased multiple years in a row. (The spike in deforestation in 2016 and 2017 in the figure above was due to extensive fires in Brazil and elsewhere and the subsequent decline from that in 2018 and 2019 reflects a return to “normal” fire years.) Moreover, each year that deforestation continues to increase or stay constant increases the annual reductions needed to achieve the 2030 target, making Goal 1 even harder to achieve.

• Global tree cover loss (Indicator 1.2), a proxy for deforestation, has been 40 percent higher since the NYDF was signed then during the baseline (18 Mha/yr before vs. 25 Mha/yr after).
• Global deforestation (Indicator 1.3) has increased by 25 and 52 percent over the baseline period.
• Loss of humid tropical primary forests has increased by 41 percent over the baseline period (3.0 Mha/yr before vs. 4.2 Mha/yr after). Tropical Africa is emerging as a frontier in loss of primary forest (144 percent increase compared to baseline period), but Latin America still dominates in total area lost (2.3 Mha/yr on average since NYDF was signed).
• Read the full Goal 1 assessment to learn more about regional differences in deforestation and associated greenhouse gas emissions.